The Bureau of Labor Statistics today posted their latest employment-projection figures for the upcoming decade. Here's the table that I find most interesting.

Fastest growing occupations, 2014 and projected 2024 (Numbers in thousands)
2014 National Employment Matrix title	Change, 2014-24		Median annual wage, 2014
	Number	Percent
Total, all occupations	9,788.9	6.5	$35,540
Wind turbine service technicians	4.8	108.0	$48,800
Occupational therapy assistants	14.1	42.7	$56,950
Physical therapist assistants	31.9	40.6	$54,410
Physical therapist aides	19.5	39.0	$24,650
Home health aides	348.4	38.1	$21,380
Commercial divers	1.6	36.9	$45,890
Nurse practitioners	44.7	35.2	$95,350
Physical therapists	71.8	34.0	$82,390
Statisticians	10.1	33.8	$79,990
Ambulance drivers and attendants, except emergency medical technicians	6.5	33.0	$24,080
Occupational therapy aides	2.7	30.6	$26,550
Physician assistants	28.7	30.4	$95,820
Operations research analysts	27.6	30.2	$76,660
Personal financial advisors	73.9	29.6	$81,060
Cartographers and photogrammetrists	3.6	29.3	$60,930
Genetic counselors	0.7	28.8	$67,500
Interpreters and translators	17.5	28.7	$43,590
Audiologists	3.8	28.6	$73,060
Hearing aid specialists	1.6	27.2	$43,010
Optometrists	11.0	27.0	$101,410
Forensic science technicians	3.8	26.6	$55,360
Web developers	39.5	26.6	$63,490
Occupational therapists	30.4	26.5	$78,810
Diagnostic medical sonographers	16.0	26.4	$67,530
Personal care aides	458.1	25.9	$20,440
Phlebotomists	28.1	24.9	$30,670
Ophthalmic medical technicians	9.1	24.7	$35,230
Nurse midwives	1.3	24.6	$96,970
Solar photovoltaic installers	1.4	24.3	$40,020
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics	58.5	24.2	$31,700

Careers in the Era of Cheap Oil, Part 2

In last week’s blog, I discussed some of the career-related effects of the current rapid declines in the price of petroleum. I mentioned that low-skilled workers in the oil patch will see job losses, and that the advantages that manufacturing will enjoy from low energy costs will be offset in some sectors by diminishing demand from the petroleum-extraction industry and from overseas buyers whose currency is losing ground to the dollar. This week I’m starting to wonder whether I was over-optimistic about the continuing outlook for green energy careers.

In the transportation industry, the large purchasers of energy (such as many airlines) are committed to hedging arrangements that prevent them of them from rapidly taking advantage of downward swings in price. But other airlines have reduced their hedging or have used the strategy of call options that don’t have to be exercised. This is also true for large truck fleets. And, of course, the current low prices will allow these transportation companies to lock in rates that will be advantageous when the price rebounds (although that may take some time). So the low price of oil has improved the long-term outlook for work in these industries.

Small trucking operations, those least likely to use hedging, can immediately profit from cheap diesel fuel, which will create opportunities for drivers and other workers at businesses that use these trucks. In fact, even before the price of oil plummeted, the long-distance trucking industry was expecting to face a shortage of drivers. A year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was already saying (after now-obsolete comments on the rising price of diesel fuel), “Job prospects for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers with the proper training are projected to be favorable. Because of truck drivers’ difficult lifestyle and time spent away from home, many companies have trouble finding and retaining qualified long-haul drivers.”

The outlook is not good for state workers in the oil patch. As extraction slows down, states that depend on severance taxes (that is, taxes on the extraction of nonrenewable resources) will have less revenue to spend on road repair, aid to education, and other state budget items. In 2003, Alaska obtained 78 percent of its tax revenues from severance taxes; North Dakota, 46 percent; Texas, 9 percent. Other states, however, will have more tax revenue to spend as consumers increase their purchases in response to their low gas-pump expenditures and the general uptick in employment. Moody’s Analytics estimates about 5 percent growth in state tax receipts for the fiscal year ending June 30.

As I mentioned last week, the biggest concern now is a macroeconomic issue: How much of the declining price of oil is caused not by increased production but rather by decreased demand resulting from an economic slowdown in most of the world (with the United States a noteworthy exception)? One indicator pointing toward the latter explanation is the decline in prices of many commodities other than petroleum. The price of copper, for example, dipped sharply this week. A global recession would hurt job prospects even in the United States because of diminished demand for American products and services. The European Central Bank just got the go-ahead to take measures to stimulate the Eurozone economy in much the same way that our Federal Reserve did in response to the Great Recession. It remains to be seen exactly what the bank’s strategy will be, so it’s unclear whether it will be aggressive enough to provide sufficient stimulus.

Careers in the Era of Cheap Oil

One of the biggest trends in the American economy right now is the low price of oil. As the price per barrel approaches and sometimes dips below $50, you can expect some changes in the job outlook for various occupations. But these are not necessarily easy to predict, and it is important to remember that the price of oil has a long history of ups and downs. The boom in domestic production was triggered by the development of fracking technology, but the continuing plunge in prices owes a large share to the decisions of Saudi Arabia, which often are based on political rather than market considerations.

The obvious first place to look for career consequences is the oil industry itself. The total number of operating rigs in the United States stands at 1,811, down 6 percent from its peak in the autumn of 2014. According to The New York Times, “Each rig represents about 100 jobs, from roughneck field hands to maintenance workers.” The Times article quotes one analyst as saying, “Exploration and production budgets are down anywhere from 30 to 40 percent and the cuts are happening faster than we thought.” He also predicts that the big three drilling companies are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ.”

The author of the article notes that “large-scale layoffs across the industry are not expected, at least not immediately. Producers contract their rigs for as long as three to four years, and many companies have hedges that lock in higher prices than the going market rates. In addition, producers often need to drill simply to retain their leases or keep their revenue up.” The more highly skilled workers have the most security, because drilling companies anticipate that prices will rebound as global demand increases in coming years. For that reason, I expect the long-term job outlook to remain excellent for petroleum engineers, who commanded the highest salaries among college graduates in last year’s survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers. The short-term prospects for newly minted petroleum engineers may not be quite as rosy, however.

Industries that are heavy consumers of energy can be expected to be the next place where career effects are felt. However, understand that bulk energy purchasers also use a hedging strategy to lock in stable prices over several years, so they do not benefit from oil price dips as quickly as you and I do at our local filling station. For example, this is true for the highly competitive airline industry. Manufacturing is feeling mixed impacts. Low prices at the gas pumps are helping automobile manufacturers to sell more of their highly profitable SUVs. The steel industry, on the other hand, is experiencing cutbacks in pipe and tube sales as demand from oil drillers slackens. Domestic steel is also being crowded out by imports, lured here by the current strength of the dollar. Manufacturers who depend on exports are finding that the strong dollar makes their products less attractive overseas.

The shift to green energy does not seem likely to be slowed much by cheap energy, so prospects are still good for job openings for engineers and technicians specializing in solar and wind energy production. The main drivers for this shift are improving technologies and continuing tax credits. An analysis by Deutsche Bank predicts that solar electricity will be competitive with grid-based prices in 47 states in 2016, assuming that the 30 percent tax credit continues. Even if the tax credit drops to 10 percent when the current law expires that year, solar electricity will be competitive in 36 states.

The darkest cloud on the horizon is the question of the economies of Europe and China. The low price of oil is partly the result of lack of increasing demand from these quarters. If Europe goes into a third round of recession and Chinese growth continues to cool, diminished world trade is likely to have an adverse effect across our economy. We can be proud of our strong dollar when we shop on the Champs Élysées, but eventually a stagnant world economy will hurt us, too.

Labor Shortages Ahead

An important corporate-research organization, The Conference Board, came out with a report this week that predicts labor shortages in several fields. The report covers many countries, but the main trend it expects here in United States is shrinkage of the labor force caused by the retirement of baby boomers.

The U.S. is actually expected to do better than many countries because America continues to be a magnet for both skilled and unskilled workers. As a result, immigration will offset many of the losses from retirements.  (The forecast would probably be more accurate if Congress could agree on an immigration policy.)

But certain fields are nonetheless expected to experience shortages of qualified workers. In some cases, this is because the fields are growing very rapidly and the work cannot be done by offshore workers or robots. This is true for several health-care and high-tech occupations. In other cases, the fields simply are not attracting the interest of young people, even though they offer lots of job opportunities and, in many cases, pay quite well.

Here are descriptions of 19 specific occupations cited in the report. If you know young people who are looking for careers with lots of potential, make note of these:

Information Security Analysts

Plan, implement, upgrade, or monitor security measures for the protection of computer networks and information. May ensure appropriate security controls are in place that will safeguard digital files and vital electronic infrastructure. May respond to computer security breaches and viruses.

Top Skills: Technology/Programming; Science; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Conventional-Investigative-Realistic.
Education required: Bachelor’s degree
Work experience required: Less than 5 years
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance; Computer Science; Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications; Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism; Information Technology; Information Technology Project Management; Network and System Administration/Administrator; System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $88,590
Middle 50% of Earners: $67,120–$113,100
Percent Growth 2012-20: 36.5
Annual Openings:  3,920

Mathematicians

Conduct research in fundamental mathematics or in application of mathematical techniques to science, management, and other fields. Solve problems in various fields using mathematical methods.

Top Skills: Mathematics; Science; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Conventional-Artistic.
Education required: Master’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Algebra and Number Theory; Analysis and Functional Analysis; Applied Mathematics, General; Applied Mathematics, Other; Computational and Applied Mathematics; Computational Mathematics; Financial Mathematics; Geometry/Geometric Analysis; Logic; Mathematical Biology; Mathematical Statistics and Probability; Mathematics and Statistics; Mathematics and Statistics, Other; Mathematics, General; Mathematics, Other; Topology and Foundations.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $102,440
Middle 50% of Earners: $72,170–$128,590
Percent Growth 2012-20: 22.7
Annual Openings:  170

Agricultural Engineers

Apply knowledge of engineering technology and biological science to agricultural problems concerned with power and machinery, electrification, structures, soil and water conservation, and processing of agricultural products.

Top Skills: Technology/Programming; Science; Mathematics.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Realistic-Enterprising.
Education required: Bachelor’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Agricultural Engineering.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $74,450
Middle 50% of Earners: $61,910–$94,020
Percent Growth 2012-20: 4.8
Annual Openings:  80

Biomedical Engineers

Apply knowledge of engineering, biology, and biomechanical principles to the design, development, and evaluation of biological and health systems and products, such as artificial organs, prostheses, instrumentation, medical information systems, and health management and care delivery systems.

Top Skills: Science; Technology/Programming; Installation.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Realistic.
Education required: Bachelor’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Bioengineering and Biomedical Engineering; Biological/Biosystems Engineering.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $88,670
Middle 50% of Earners: $68,720–$113,250
Percent Growth 2012-20: 26.6
Annual Openings:  1,010

Civil Engineers

Perform engineering duties in planning, designing, and overseeing construction and maintenance of building structures, and facilities, such as roads, railroads, airports, bridges, harbors, channels, dams, irrigation projects, pipelines, power plants, and water and sewage systems. Includes architectural, structural, traffic, ocean, and geo-technical engineers.

Top Skills: Mathematics; Science; Technology/Programming.
RIASEC Personality Type: Realistic-Investigative-Conventional.
Education required: Bachelor’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Civil Engineering, General; Civil Engineering, Other; Construction Engineering; Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering; Structural Engineering; Transportation and Highway Engineering; Water Resources Engineering.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $80,770
Middle 50% of Earners: $63,850–$101,660
Percent Growth 2012-20: 19.7
Annual Openings:  12,010

Environmental Engineers

Research, design, plan, or perform engineering duties in the prevention, control, and remediation of environmental hazards using various engineering disciplines. Work may include waste treatment, site remediation, or pollution control technology.

Top Skills: Science; Mathematics; Technology/Programming.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Realistic.
Education required: Bachelor’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Environmental/Environmental Health Engineering; Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $82,220
Middle 50% of Earners: $62,920–$103,860
Percent Growth 2012-20: 15.3
Annual Openings:  2,110

Optometrists

Diagnose, manage, and treat conditions and diseases of the human eye and visual system. Examine eyes and visual system, diagnose problems or impairments, prescribe corrective lenses, and provide treatment. May prescribe therapeutic drugs to treat specific eye conditions.

Top Skills: Science; Communication; Mathematics.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Social-Realistic.
Education required: Doctoral or professional degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Optometry (OD).
Median Earnings (May 2013): $101,290
Middle 50% of Earners: $76,720–$132,100
Percent Growth 2012-20: 24.4
Annual Openings:  1,770

Family and General Practitioners

Physicians who diagnose, treat, and help prevent diseases and injuries that commonly occur in the general population. May refer patients to specialists when needed for further diagnosis or treatment.

Top Skills: Science; Communication; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Social.
Education required: Doctoral or professional degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: Internship/residency
Educational Programs: Family Medicine Residency Program; Medicine (MD); Osteopathic Medicine/Osteopathy (DO).
Median Earnings (May 2013): $176,530
Middle 50% of Earners: $130,780–$187,200+
Percent Growth 2012-20: 14.6
Annual Openings:  4,920

Podiatrists

Diagnose and treat diseases and deformities of the human foot.

Top Skills: Science; Technology/Programming; Communication.
RIASEC Personality Type: Investigative-Social-Realistic.
Education required: Doctoral or professional degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: Internship/residency
Educational Programs: Podiatric Medicine and Surgery - 24 Residency Program; Podiatric Medicine and Surgery - 36 Residency Program; Podiatric Medicine/Podiatry (DPM).
Median Earnings (May 2013): $118,210
Middle 50% of Earners: $82,050–$171,170
Percent Growth 2012-20: 22.5
Annual Openings:  460

Physical Therapists

Assess, plan, organize, and participate in rehabilitative programs that improve mobility, relieve pain, increase strength, and improve or correct disabling conditions resulting from disease or injury.

Top Skills: Science; Communication; Social.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Investigative-Realistic.
Education required: Doctoral or professional degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Kinesiotherapy/Kinesiotherapist; Physical Therapy/Therapist Training.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $81,030
Middle 50% of Earners: $67,700–$93,820
Percent Growth 2012-20: 36
Annual Openings:  12,370

Nurse Midwives

Diagnose and coordinate all aspects of the birthing process, either independently or as part of a healthcare team. May provide well-woman gynecological care. Must have specialized, graduate nursing education.

Top Skills: Science; Communication; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Investigative.
Education required: Master’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Nurse Midwife/Nursing Midwifery.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $92,290
Middle 50% of Earners: $78,730–$108,910
Percent Growth 2012-20: 28.6
Annual Openings:  290

Nurse Practitioners

Diagnose and treat acute, episodic, or chronic illness, independently or as part of a healthcare team. May focus on health promotion and disease prevention. May order, perform, or interpret diagnostic tests such as lab work and x rays. May prescribe medication. Must be registered nurses who have specialized graduate education.

Top Skills: Science; Social; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Investigative-Realistic.
Education required: Master’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Adult Health Nurse/Nursing; Critical Care Nursing; Emergency Room/Trauma Nursing; Family Practice Nurse/Nursing; Geriatric Nurse/Nursing; Maternal/Child Health and Neonatal Nurse/Nursing; Nursing Practice; Pediatric Nurse/Nursing; Psychiatric/Mental Health Nurse/Nursing; Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research; Women's Health Nurse/Nursing.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $92,670
Middle 50% of Earners: $80,560–$110,130
Percent Growth 2012-20: 33.7
Annual Openings:  5,850

Dental Hygienists

Clean teeth and examine oral areas, head, and neck for signs of oral disease. May educate patients on oral hygiene, take and develop x rays, or apply fluoride or sealants.

Top Skills: Science; Social; Communication.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Realistic-Conventional.
Education required: Associate’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Dental Hygiene/Hygienist Training.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $71,110
Middle 50% of Earners: $59,600–$85,310
Percent Growth 2012-20: 33.3
Annual Openings:  11,350

Occupational Therapy Assistants

Assist occupational therapists in providing occupational therapy treatments and procedures. May, in accordance with State laws, assist in development of treatment plans, carry out routine functions, direct activity programs, and document the progress of treatments. Generally requires formal training.

Top Skills: Social; Communication; Science.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Realistic.
Education required: Associate’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Occupational Therapist Assistant Training.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $55,270
Middle 50% of Earners: $44,400–$66,590
Percent Growth 2012-20: 42.6
Annual Openings:  2,050

Physical Therapist Assistants

Assist physical therapists in providing physical therapy treatments and procedures. May, in accordance with State laws, assist in the development of treatment plans, carry out routine functions, document the progress of treatment, and modify specific treatments in accordance with patient status and within the scope of treatment plans established by a physical therapist. Generally requires formal training.

Top Skills: Science; Social; Technology/Programming.
RIASEC Personality Type: Social-Realistic-Investigative.
Education required: Associate’s degree
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: None
Educational Programs: Physical Therapy Technician/Assistant Training.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $53,360
Middle 50% of Earners: $42,630–$64,510
Percent Growth 2012-20: 41
Annual Openings:  4,510

Construction and Building Inspectors

Inspect structures using engineering skills to determine structural soundness and compliance with specifications, building codes, and other regulations. Inspections may be general in nature or may be limited to a specific area, such as electrical systems or plumbing.

Top Skills: Mathematics; Science; Communication.
RIASEC Personality Type: Realistic-Conventional-Investigative.
Education required: High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience required: 5 years or more
On-the-job Training Required: Moderate-term on-the-job training
Educational Programs: Building/Home/Construction Inspection/Inspector.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $54,450
Middle 50% of Earners: $42,090–$69,310
Percent Growth 2012-20: 12.2
Annual Openings:  3,670

Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators

Operate or control an entire process or system of machines, often through the use of control boards, to transfer or treat water or wastewater.

Top Skills: Equipment Use/Maintenance; Science; Technology/Programming.
RIASEC Personality Type: Realistic-Conventional.
Education required: High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: Long-term on-the-job training
Educational Programs: Water Quality and Wastewater Treatment Management and Recycling Technology/Technician.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $43,200
Middle 50% of Earners: $33,480–$55,080
Percent Growth 2012-20: 7.7
Annual Openings:  4,750

Transportation Inspectors

Inspect equipment or goods in connection with the safe transport of cargo or people. Includes rail transportation inspectors, such as freight inspectors; rail inspectors; and other inspectors of transportation vehicles, not elsewhere classified.

Top Skills: Science; Equipment Use/Maintenance; Thought-Processing.
RIASEC Personality Type: Realistic-Conventional-Investigative.
Education required: High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience required: None
On-the-job Training Required: Moderate-term on-the-job training
Educational Programs: No related CIP programs; this job is learned through work experience in a related occupation.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $65,950
Middle 50% of Earners: $44,890–$89,710
Percent Growth 2012-20: 11.2
Annual Openings:  1,170

Crane and Tower Operators

Operate mechanical boom and cable or tower and cable equipment to lift and move materials, machines, or products in many directions.

Top Skills: Equipment Use/Maintenance; Installation; Management.
RIASEC Personality Type: Realistic-Conventional-Investigative.
Education required: High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience required: Less than 5 years
On-the-job Training Required: Moderate-term on-the-job training
Educational Programs: Construction/Heavy Equipment/Earthmoving Equipment Operation; Mobile Crane Operation/Operator.
Median Earnings (May 2013): $48,630
Middle 50% of Earners: $37,410–$63,260
Percent Growth 2012-20: 16.8
Annual Openings:  2,240